# GJTL (Gajah Tunggal) — Valuation & Dividend Analysis
**Tanggal Analisis:** 16 Juli 2026 | **Harga Saat Ini:** IDR 1,120

---

## 1. DATA FUNDAMENTAL (Source: TradingView)

| Metric | Value |
|--------|-------|
| Harga Saham | IDR 1,120 |
| Market Cap | IDR 3.87T |
| P/E Ratio (TTM) | 3.04x |
| EPS (TTM) | IDR 364.66 |
| Revenue (FY2024) | IDR 17.66T |
| Net Income (FY2024) | IDR 1.24T |
| Dividend Yield (Indicated) | 7.14% |
| Dividend Per Share (FY) | IDR 80 |
| Last Ex-Date | 5 Jun 2026 |
| Debt | IDR 5.27T |
| Cash | IDR 1.33T |
| Enterprise Value | IDR 7.80T |
| Free Float | 34.74% (1.21B saham) |
| Shares Outstanding | 3.48B |

**Profit Margin:** 1.24T / 17.66T = **7.02%**

---

## 2. DCF VALUATION — Intrinsic Value

### Asumsi:
- **Free Cash Flow (FY2024):** IDR 1T (approximated from Net Income)
- **Growth Rate (5 tahun):** 5% per tahun
- **Terminal Growth Rate:** 3%
- **Discount Rate (WACC):** 10%
- **Net Debt:** IDR 5.27T - IDR 1.33T = **IDR 3.94T**

### Proyeksi FCF (dalam Triliun IDR):
| Tahun | FCF | PV Factor | PV |
|-------|-----|-----------|-----|
| 1 | 1.050 | 0.909 | 0.955 |
| 2 | 1.103 | 0.826 | 0.911 |
| 3 | 1.158 | 0.751 | 0.870 |
| 4 | 1.216 | 0.683 | 0.830 |
| 5 | 1.276 | 0.621 | 0.792 |
| **Sum (5 tahun)** | | | **4.358T** |

### Terminal Value:
```
TV = FCF × (1 + g) / (WACC - g)
TV = 1.276T × 1.03 / (0.10 - 0.03)
TV = 1.314T / 0.07 = IDR 18.77T
PV of TV = 18.77T / (1.10)^5 = 18.77T × 0.621 = IDR 11.66T
```

### Equity Value (DCF):
```
Enterprise Value = PV of FCF + PV of TV = 4.358T + 11.66T = IDR 16.02T
Equity Value = EV - Net Debt = 16.02T - 3.94T = IDR 12.08T
Intrinsic Value per Share = 12.08T / 3.48B = IDR 3,471
```

### Kesimpulan DCF:
| Metrik | Nilai |
|--------|-------|
| Intrinsic Value (DCF) | **IDR 3,471** |
| Harga Saat Ini | IDR 1,120 |
| **Upside Potential** | **+210%** |
| Margin of Safety | ~68% |

⚠️ **UNDERVALUED — Harga saat ini IDR 1,120 jauh di bawah nilai intrinsik DCF IDR 3,471**

---

## 3. P/E COMPARISON — Peer Analysis

| Company | P/E Ratio | Keterangan |
|---------|-----------|-------------|
| **GJTL** | **3.04x** | SAHAM INI |
| SMSM | 9x | Sector peer |
| Industry Avg (Auto Parts) | 10x | Average |
| GDYR (Goodyear) | ~4x | Peer tire |
| TYRE (King Tire) | ~3x | Peer tire |

### P/E-Based Fair Value:
- At **Peer P/E 9x (SMSM)**: 364.66 × 9 = **IDR 3,282** (+193% upside)
- At **Industry P/E 10x**: 364.66 × 10 = **IDR 3,647** (+226% upside)
- At **Peer P/E 3x (TYRE)**: 364.66 × 3 = **IDR 1,094** (-2% downside)

### Kesimpulan P/E:
GJTL diperdagangkan pada P/E **3.04x** — sangat murah dibanding SMSM (9x) dan industry avg (10x). Bahkan dibanding TYRE (3x), GJTL masih sedikit lebih tinggi P/E. Jika GJTL diperdagangkan di P/E SMSM (9x), harga seharusnya **IDR 3,282**. Ini menunjukkan GJTL adalah **SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED** berdasarkan P/E.

---

## 4. DIVIDEND SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS

### Data Dividen:
- Dividend per share: IDR 80/tahun
- Dividend yield (TTM): 7.21%
- Dividend yield (indicated): 7.14%
- Last ex-date: 5 Jun 2026
- Last payment: 18 Jun 2026
- Total dividends paid FY: IDR 80 × 3.48B = **IDR 278.4B**

### Analisis Sustainable:
```
Dividend Payout Ratio = Dividen / Laba Bersih = 278.4B / 1,240B = 22.4%
```
- Payout ratio hanya **22.4%** — sangat rendah dan AMAN
- Sisa laba ditahan (77.6%) untuk reinvestasi dan bayar utang
- Laba per saham (EPS): IDR 364.66
- Dividen per saham: IDR 80
- **Sisa per saham:** IDR 284.66 ditahan

### Verifikasi Dividend Cover:
- Net Income FY2024: IDR 1.24T
- Total Dividen: IDR 278.4B
- **Dividend Cover Ratio: 4.5x** (sangat aman — industry standard 1.5-2x sudah aman)

### Kesimpulan Dividend:
✅ **DIVIDEN SANGAT AMAN** — Payout ratio hanya 22.4% dengan dividend cover 4.5x.
 即使 profit turun 50%, dividen masih bisa dipertahankan.

---

## 5. ANALYST PRICE TARGETS

Berdasarkan data yang tersedia, informasi analyst recommendation terbatas karena GJTL adalah saham dengan kapitalisasi menengah. Namun:

- **Intrinsic Value (DCF):** IDR 3,471
- **Fair Value (P/E 9x peer):** IDR 3,282
- **Fair Value (P/E 10x industry):** IDR 3,647

**Keterangan:** Karena GJTL tidak广泛 dicover oleh analyst besar (mid-cap stock), tidak ada official price target dari broker besar. Namun, berdasarkan multiple valuation, harga wajar GJTL adalah **IDR 3,000 - 3,600**.

---

## 6. RISK FACTORS

### 🔴 Commodity Prices (High Risk)
- **Karet alam (NR):** Raw material utama untuk ban. Harga karet fluktuatif secara global.
- **Carbon black, steel cord, sintetis rubber:** Cost pressure jika harga naik.
- **Mitigasi:** GJTL adalah integrated producer (memiliki upstream sampai tire cord),有一定 cost advantage.

### 🟡 Interest Rates (Medium Risk)
- **Debt:** IDR 5.27T dengan cash IDR 1.33T → Net debt IDR 3.94T
- **Impact:** Suku bunga tinggi = beban bunga meningkat, profit terpengaruh
- **Mitigasi:** Dengan bunga yang sudah naik sebelumnya, dampak sudah terasa. ROE rendah (1.24T/?? equity) menunjukkan leverage影响.

### 🟡 Exchange Rate / IDR Sensitivity (Medium-High Risk)
- GJTL ekspor produk ban ke 100+ negara
- Revenue dalam USD tetapi biaya dalam IDR
- **Impact:** IDR depreciation = revenue naik saat dikonversi, tapi imported materials juga mahal
- **Beta 0.77** menunjukkan relativamente less volatile dibanding market

### 🟡 Industry/Tech Disruption (Medium Risk)
- EV (Electric Vehicle) shift: Ban untuk EV memiliki spec berbeda (lebih berat, torque berbeda)
- Tire industry relatively defensive tapi tidak immune

### 🟢 Competition Risk (Low-Medium)
- Kompetisi dari ban China (seringadi dumping)
- Brand GT Radial dan Giti sudah established globally
- Export market memberikan diversifikasi

---

## 7. INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATION

### OVERALL: **STRONG BUY** ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

### Target Price:
| Base | Price Target | Upside |
|------|-------------|--------|
| Conservative (P/E 6x) | IDR 2,188 | +95% |
| **Base Case (P/E 9x)** | **IDR 3,282** | **+193%** |
| Optimistic (P/E 10x) | IDR 3,647 | +226% |
| DCF Intrinsic Value | IDR 3,471 | +210% |

### Investment Thesis:

**STRENGTHS (Bull Case):**
1. ✅ P/E 3.04x — sangat undervalued vs peers (SMSM 9x, industry 10x)
2. ✅ Dividend yield 7.14% — AMAN dengan payout ratio hanya 22.4%
3. ✅ DCF menunjukkan intrinsic value IDR 3,471 (upside 210%)
4. ✅ Integrated producer — cost advantage di raw materials
5. ✅ Export-oriented — diversifikasi revenue globally
6. ✅ Beta 0.77 — relatively defensive

**WEAKNESSES (Risk Case):**
1. ⚠️ ROE rendah — return on equity perlu improvement
2. ⚠️ High debt (IDR 5.27T) — sensitive ke interest rates
3. ⚠️ Commodity price volatility — rubber prices unpredictable
4. ⚠️ Low liquidity — mid cap, free float only 34.74%
5. ⚠️ Not widely covered by analysts — lack of institutional attention

### Verdict:
**BUY GJTL di harga IDR 1,120 dengan target price IDR 3,282 (base case P/E 9x) atau IDR 3,471 (DCF).**
- Entry price: IDR 1,120
- Stop loss: IDR 900 (-20%)
- Target 1: IDR 2,200
- Target 2: IDR 3,282
- Time horizon: 12-18 bulan

### Kenapa P/E Sangat Rendah?
P/E 3x tidak masuk akal untuk perusahaan yang profitable. Kemungkinan penyebab:
1. **High debt** menekan multiple
2. **Low liquidity** — institusi avoided due to free float kecil
3. **Commodity nature** — investor memberikan discount untuk volatility
4. **Family-controlled** (65% closely held) — kurangnya corporate governance perception

Ini menciptakan **value trap POTENTIAL** — valuasi murah bukan tanpa alasan. Investor harusmonitor debt levels dan commodity costs closely.

---

## SUMMARY TABLE

| Aspek | Rating | Detail |
|-------|--------|--------|
| DCF Valuation | ✅ UNDERVALUED | Intrinsic IDR 3,471 vs price IDR 1,120 |
| P/E vs Peers | ✅ UNDERVALUED | 3.04x vs SMSM 9x, industry 10x |
| Dividend Safety | ✅ AMAN | Payout 22.4%, cover 4.5x, yield 7.14% |
| Analyst Targets | ⚠️ LACK OF DATA | No official targets, intrinsic value suggests IDR 3,000-3,600 |
| Commodity Risk | ⚠️ HIGH | Rubber, carbon black price volatility |
| Interest Rate Risk | ⚠️ MEDIUM | High debt (IDR 5.27T) sensitive to rates |
| Exchange Rate Risk | ⚠️ MEDIUM | Export-oriented, IDR sensitivity |
| **Overall Rec.** | **⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ BUY** | Target IDR 3,282, Stop Loss IDR 900 |

---

*Analisis ini berdasarkan data publik dan bukan merupakan financial advice. Selalu lakukan riset sendiri sebelum investing.*